Image
Predictions
Five Subs and Added Time: A Case Study on Draw Frequency
More substitutions and longer stoppage time have changed match patterns. A case study look at how five subs and added…
Predictions
Predictions
Image
Predictions
Do Derbies Really Produce More Draws, or Is It Just Folklore?
Comparing draw-rate assumptions in UK derby fixtures against standard league matches to separate pools folklore from genuinely solid reasoning.
Image
Predictions
How to Backtest a Draw-Selection Method on Archival Results
Before trusting a draw-picking method, test it against past results properly. Here's a step-by-step backtesting process that avoids hindsight bias.
Image
Predictions
Tactical Styles That Breed Draws: A Scouting Method
A step-by-step method for spotting draw-prone pools fixtures by reading playing styles, from compact low blocks to possession-heavy away sides.
Image
Predictions
Reading Form Before Making Football Pools Predictions
A practical guide to weighing form, home and away records, fixture congestion and team news when assessing football pools coupons.
Image
Predictions
How to Spot Likely Score Draws on Pools Coupons
A practical guide to identifying potential score draws on football pools coupons by weighing goals, form, tactics and match context.
Image
Predictions
Seven Mental Traps That Distort Your Draw Predictions
Seven common cognitive biases, from recency bias to the gambler's fallacy, that quietly sabotage score draw selections on a weekly…
Image
Predictions
Why ‘100% Sure’ Draw Predictions Don’t Exist: A Reality Check
Guaranteed draw predictions are a marketing phrase, not a mathematical reality. Here's the actuarial case for why certainty in football…
Image
Predictions
Using xG and Poisson Maths to Estimate Score Draw Chances
A worked example applying expected goals data and the Poisson distribution to estimate the probability of 1-1 and 2-2 score…